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Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Ticari Açıklık ve Yakınsama İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4, 1071 - 1093, 10.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1034468

Öz

Dünya Bankası’nın kişi başına GSYH ülke sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye 1955 yılından araştırmanın yapıldığı 2021’e kadar geçen dönemde orta gelirli ülkeler grubunda yer almıştır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle Türkiye ekonomisinin karşılaştığı durumun orta gelir tuzağı olup olmadığı Türkiye ve referans ülke olarak alınan ABD GSYH’lerinin 1960 – 2021 dönemindeki yıllık farklarına bir geleneksel ve üç farklı yapısal kırılmalı birim kök test uygulanmak suretiyle araştırılmıştır. Bir yapısal kırılmalı test dışındaki tüm birim kök sınamalarının bulguları serinin durağan olmadığını göstermiştir. Diğer taraftan Türkiye’nin kişi başına GSYH’sinin referans ülke ABD GSYH’sine oranı ilgili dönem için nispi eşik olarak belirlenen 0,08 – 0,36 aralığında kalmıştır. Bulgular Türkiye’nin orta gelir tuzağına takıldığına dair kesin kanıtlar sağlamamakla birlikte bu riskin söz konusu olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Daha sonra Türkiye ve ABD GSYH’leri yakınsaması ile ticari açıklık, imalat sanayi ürünleri ithalatı ve ihracatı, tarımsal ürünler ithalatı ve ihracatı, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı, reel efektif döviz kuru arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkiler 1990–2021 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılmak suretiyle araştırılmıştır. Uygulanan ARDL sınır testinin bulguları ticari açıklık düzeyindeki artışların uzun dönemde Türkiye ile ABD kişi başına GSYH’lerinin yakınsamasına neden olduğunu göstermektedir. İmalat sanayi ürünleri ithalatının toplam GSYH içindeki payındaki artışlar hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde, tarımsal ürünler ithalatının payındaki artışlar ise uzun dönemde ıraksamaya yol açmaktadır.

Kaynakça

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  • Agénor, P. R., Canuto, O. ve Jelenic, M. (2012). Avoiding Middle–Income Growth Traps. Economic Premise, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM) Nr, 98: The World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16954
  • Alancıoğlu, E., Arslan, İ. ve Bayraktutan, Y. (2019). Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Nedenleri ve Çıkış Politikaları. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 11(21), 472–486.
  • Andreoni, A. ve Tregenna, F. (2020). Escaping The Middle−Income Technology Trap: A Comparative Analysis of Industrial Policies in China, Brazil and South Africa. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 54, 324−340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.05.008
  • Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y. ve Zhang, L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle–Income Trap. IMF Working Paper 13/71, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1371.pdf
  • Akbaş, Y. E. ve Sancar, C. (2021). The Impact of Export Dynamics on Trade Balance in Emerging and Developed Countries: An Evaluation with Middle Income Trap Perspective. International Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 357–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.014
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Middle Income Trap, Trade Openness and Income Convergence: Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4, 1071 - 1093, 10.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1034468

Öz

According to World Bank country classifications by income level, Turkey has been a middle income country since 1955. In the first stage of the study, whether the situation faced by the Turkish economy is a middle–income trap or not was investigated by applying one traditional and three structural break unit root tests to the annual range of GDP per capita of Turkey relative to USA. The annual time series spanning from 1960 to 2020 was found to be not–stationary in all unit root tests except for one of the unit root tests which allow for a structural break. On the other hand, the ratio of Turkey's per capita GDP to the reference country's (USA) GDP remained in the range of 0.08 – 0.36, which was considered as the relative threshold throughout the period examined. Although the findings do not provide conclusive evidence for the existence of the middle–income trap, they indicate that Turkey is at risk of facing it. In the second stage of the study, the long– and short–run relationship between the convergence of Turkey and USA GDPs, and trade openness was investigated using annual data for the period 1990–2021. Exports and imports of manufacturing industries products and agricultural products as a percentage of GDP, the ratio of exports to imports, and the real effective exchange rate were included as explanatory variables in the ARDL bounds model applied. The findings reveal that increases in the level of trade openness in Turkey cause the per capita GDP of Turkey and the USA to converge in the long–run. While the increasing share of agricultural products imports in total GDP cause divergence in the long–run, increasing the share of manufacturing industry products imports cause divergence in both the long– and short–run.

Kaynakça

  • Agénor, P. R. (2017). Caught in the Middle? The Economic of Middle–Income Traps. Journal of Economic Surveys, 31(3), 771−791. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12175
  • Agénor, P. R. ve Canuto, O. (2015). Middle–income growth traps. Research in Economics, 6(4),641−660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2015.04.003
  • Agénor, P. R., Canuto, O. ve Jelenic, M. (2012). Avoiding Middle–Income Growth Traps. Economic Premise, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM) Nr, 98: The World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16954
  • Alancıoğlu, E., Arslan, İ. ve Bayraktutan, Y. (2019). Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Nedenleri ve Çıkış Politikaları. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 11(21), 472–486.
  • Andreoni, A. ve Tregenna, F. (2020). Escaping The Middle−Income Technology Trap: A Comparative Analysis of Industrial Policies in China, Brazil and South Africa. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 54, 324−340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.05.008
  • Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y. ve Zhang, L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle–Income Trap. IMF Working Paper 13/71, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1371.pdf
  • Akbaş, Y. E. ve Sancar, C. (2021). The Impact of Export Dynamics on Trade Balance in Emerging and Developed Countries: An Evaluation with Middle Income Trap Perspective. International Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 357–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.014
  • Battra, R. ve Slottje, D. J. (1993). Trade Policy and Poverty in The United States: Theory And Evidence, 1947–1990. Review of International Economics, 1(3), 189–208.
  • Bhagwati, J. (1958). Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note. The Review of Economics Studies, 25(3), 201−205. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295990
  • Bozkurt, E., Sevinç, H. ve Çakmak, E. (2016). Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Üst Orta Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 16(2), 379–394. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/560974
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  • Bayraktutan, Y. ve Bıdırdı, H. (2015). Teknoloji Politikaları: Temel Göstergeler ve İhracata Yansımaları (Seçilmiş Ülke Örnekleri), Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1), 1–30.
  • Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models. Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
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  • Konya, S., Karaçor, Z. ve Yardımcı, P. (2017). The Middle–Income Trap: An Assessment in Terms of Turkish Economy. Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting, 3(1), 270–287. https://hrcak.srce.hr/187385
  • Kumagai, S. (2015). The Middle–Income Trap from the Viewpoint of Trade Structures: Are the Geese Trapped or Still Flying? Journal of International Commerce. Economics and Policy, 6(3), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993315500179
  • Leamer, E. E. (1998). Measures of Openness. R. E. Baldwin(Ed.), Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis içinde (147–204. ss.). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
  • Lee, J. W. (2019). Convergence Success and the Middle–Income Trap. The Developing Economies, 58(1), 30–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.12214
  • Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
  • Manga, M. (2019). Orta Gelir Tuzağı Bağlamında İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(1), 145–168. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.484244
  • Manga, M., Ballı, E. ve Güreşçi, G. (2019). Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 59: 48–60. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/dpusbe/issue/43067/428227
  • Narayan, P. K. ve Popp, S. (2010). A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unkown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425–1438. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760903039883
  • Ohno, K. (2009). Avoiding the Middle–Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam. Asean Economic Bulletin, 26(1), 25–43. http://hdl.handle.net/10625/41422
  • Öztürk, A. C. ve Yavuz Tiftikçigil, B. (2020). Assessment of the Possibility of a Middle–Income Trap in Turkey. Journal of Life Economics, 7(4): 331–348. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.7.025
  • Öztürk, Z. ve Tay Bayramoğlu, A. (2019). Orta Gelir Tuzaği Hipotezi’nin Panel Birim Kök Testi ile Analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 17(4): 200–213. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.631141
  • Parida, P. C. ve Sahoo, P. (2007). Export–led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis. International Economic Journal, 21 (2), 155–175. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730701345414
  • Pesaran, M. H. ve Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. S, Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium içinde. Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Phillips, P. C. B. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
  • Prebisch, R. (1950). The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. UN document no. E/CN.12/89/Rev.1. Lake Success, N.Y.: United Nations.
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  • Ramsey, J. B. (1969). Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Least–Squares Regression Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B31, 350–71.
  • Robertson, P. E. ve Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle–Income Trap. University of Western Australia Working Paper 13/12.
  • Rodrik, D. (1988). Imperfect Competition, Scale Economies and Trade Policy in Developing Countries. Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis. RE Baldwin.
  • Rodrik, D. (1992). The Limits of Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6(1), 87–105. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138375
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long–Run Growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002–1037. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1833190
  • Sarıbaş, H. ve Ursavaş, U. (2017). Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Ampirik Bir Çalışma. AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(2), 37–51. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/basbed/issue/38797/456283
  • Singer, H. W. (1950). The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries. Strategy of International Development: Essays in the Economics of Backwardness içinde. Londra: Macmillan
  • Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the Dimensions of a Model. The Annals of Statistical, 6, 461–464. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2958889
  • Spence, M. (2011). The Next Convergence, The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
  • Şahin, İ., Başer, K. ve Karanfil, M. (2015). Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Türkiye Örneği (1980–2013). Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 225–235. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/201844
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  • Tıraşoğlu, M. ve Karasaç, F. (2018). Orta Gelir Tuzaği: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında E7 Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 2018, 13(2), 337–361. https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.430713
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  • Yaşar, M. M. (2019). Can Turkey Escape from the Middle–Income Trap? What Has Been Done? What Can Be Done? Lessons from South Korea, Seoul Journal of Economics, 32(1), 63–82. http://sje.ac.kr/xml/26564/26564.pdf
  • Yavuz Tiftikçigil, B., Güriş, B. ve Yaşgül, Y. S. (2018). Does Middle Income Trap Exist? Evidence From Emergıng Economies: E7 Countries for 1969–2015. Revista Galega de Economia, 27(1), 145–162. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2cb1/02ef650f0a6233b9f8c6cf79ec17d6992f75.pdf
  • Yıldız, F. ve Bayraktar, Y. (2021). Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri Orta–Gelir Tuzağında Mı? Gelir Yakınsaması ve Panel Veri Analizine Dayalı Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Marmara Üniversitesi Öneri Dergisi, 16(56), 451–477. https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.927490
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Toplam 83 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Haşmet Sarıgül 0000-0001-7262-6668

Sudi Apak 0000-0003-4333-8266

Tuğba Koyuncu 0000-0002-2721-1313

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 9 Eylül 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 10 Kasım 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 9 Aralık 2021
Kabul Tarihi 15 Şubat 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Sarıgül, H., Apak, S., & Koyuncu, T. (2022). Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Ticari Açıklık ve Yakınsama İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(4), 1071-1093. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1034468

İzmir İktisat Dergisi
TR-DİZİN, DOAJ, EBSCO, ERIH PLUS, Index Copernicus, Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory, EconLit, Harvard Hollis, Google Scholar, OAJI, SOBIAD, CiteFactor, OJOP, Araştırmax, WordCat, OpenAIRE, Base, IAD, Academindex
tarafından taranmaktadır.

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Yayınevi Web Sitesi
https://kutuphane.deu.edu.tr/yayinevi/

Dergi İletişim Bilgileri Sayfası
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ije/contacts


İZMİR İKTİSAT DERGİSİ 2022 yılı 37. cilt 1. sayı ile birlikte sadece elektronik olarak yayınlanmaya başlamıştır.